Golden Globe Predictions – Film

12 years a slave
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Read my Golden Globe Predictions – Television here.

The Golden Globes will be worth watching because Tina Fey and Amy Poehler are hosting and they make everything worth it, but along the way some people will win some things. The ceremony takes place tomorrow and is a nice little warm-up for the Oscars.

Here are my predictions for the film categories:

Motion picture: drama

Nominees: 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, Captain Phillips, Rush, Philomena

The big race this year is between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. The former is steamrolling all the way to the Best Picture Academy Award, but the Globes don’t take themselves as seriously and like to award “big” movies over “important” movies (Avatar beating The Hurt Locker, for example) and Gravity did very good international business, so it’s in with a fairly good chance. It would have been nice to see a nod to Saving Mr Banks here or even something like Only God Forgives or Kill Your Darlings, but the Globes isn’t where you should expect indie love. And isn’t it interesting how everyone has forgotten The Great Gatsby?

Will win: 12 Years a Slave

Might win: Gravity

I wish: 12 Years a Slave

Motion picture: comedy or musical

Nominees: Nebraska, American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street, Her, Inside Llewellyn Davis

It would have been nice to see love for something like The Way, Way Back or even This Is The End here, since those are actual comedies and not our-producers-thought-we-stood-a-better-chance-in-this-catergory comedies. A strategy, by the way, that failed for August: Osage County, which could have had Rush’s place on the drama list. But whatever, it’s American Hustle’s year anyway, so it hardly matters.

Will Win: American Hustle

Might Win: Nebraska

I wish: American Hustle

Actress in a motion picture: drama

Nominees: Cate Blanchett  – Blue Jasmine, Sandra Bullock – Gravity, Judi Dench – Philomena, Emma Thompson – Saving Mr Banks, Kate Winslet – Labor Day

I really want Emma Thompson to win this. She’s so great as PL Travers, isn’t she? But I fear this is Cate Blanchett’s year. Sandra Bullock might snag it, but she doesn’t deserve it as much as Blanchett,  who acted her great big heart out in Blue Jasmine.

Will win: Cate Blanchett

Might Win: Sandra Bullock

I wish: Emma Thompson

Actor in a motion picture:  drama

Nominees: Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave, Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips, Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club, Robert Redford – All Is Lost.

Do you think the power of Matthew McConaughey’s remarkable acting comeback can carry him all the way to the win? Probably not. Jared Leto has a better chance to snag an award for Dallas Buyers Club in the supporting category. Robert Redford has a slim chance because he has gravitas, but really it’s probably Chiwetel Ejiofor’s year. 12 Years a Slave has got all the awards momentum right now and Ejiofor’s performance was lauded.

Will Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor

Might Win: Robert Redford

I wish: Chiwetel Ejiofor

Actress in a motion picture: musical or comedy

Nominees: Amy Adams – American Hustle, Julie Delpy – Before Midnight, Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha, Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Enough Said, Meryl Streep – August: Osage County.

Will Meryl snag her ninth Globe? Gosh, I hope so. Amy Adams is a perennial nominee who never wins and like 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle has all the momentum right now and wouldn’t it be great if all four its lead actors walked away with awards? But Adams’s performance wasn’t as talked about as Jennifer Lawrence’s (nominated for American Hustle in the supporting category) and Meryl Streep is one of only two chances  August: Osage County  has to get a trophy, so my money is on her. Julia Louis-Dreyfus will no doubt win the television actress globe for Veep, so isn’t a consideration here.

Will Win: Meryl Streep

Might Win: Amy Adams

I wish: Meryl Streep

Actor in a motion picture: musical or comedy

Nominees: Christian Bale – American Hustle, Bruce Dern – Nebraska, Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street, Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis, Joaquin Phoenix – Her

Leo! Leo! Leo! It’s Leonardo DiCaprio’s turn for some love, guys. He is so great in this movie and he needs to fill the void the absence of any Oscar trophies has created. But The Wolf of Wall Street isn’t strictly speaking a comedy and wasn’t strictly speaking that good, so Bruce Dern has a very good chance. Like Robert Redford he has gravitas and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) seems to love Nebraska a whole lot.

Will Win: Bruce Dern

Might Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

I wish: Leonardo Dicaprio

Supporting actress in a motion picture

Nominees: Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine, Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle, Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave, Julia Roberts – August: Osage County, June Squibb – Nebraska

This is an interesting one. Smart money says it’s a race between Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong’o. Lawrence is probably American Hustle’s best chance for an acting win and because 12 Years a Slave will definitely bag the best actor in a drama globe and probably the supporting actor one as well, I think Lawrence will edge Lupita Nyong’o out. Except that Lawrence won last year, so that might count against her. And I wouldn’t discount Julia Roberts. She has had some of the best reviews of her career and the HFPA love it when big stars give big performances.

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

Might Win: Lupita Nyong’o or Julia Roberts

I wish: Julia Roberts

Supporting actor in a motion picture

Nominees: Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips, Daniel Brühl – Rush, Bradley Cooper – American Hustle, Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave, Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Riding the 12 Years a Slave momentum all the way to gold, Mr Fassbender will probably take this, but Barkhad Abdi caused a big splash in Captain Phillips and might come out of left field. I would seriously love to see Jared Leto take it for his brave work as a transsexual in Dallas Buyers Club.  A big snub here was Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street, who I think will probably get Oscar love.

Will Win: Michael Fassbender

Might Win: Barkhad Abdi

I wish: Jared Leto

*The Golden Globes will air this Sunday

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