RuPaul’s Drag Race predictions?

Jake Basford

Alright, so thanks to #RuVeal we have learnt who all the queens are for the next season of RuPaul’s Drag Race, but should we be so quick to judge them before they have a chance to strut out on to the main stage? We argue ‘not today Satan!’

Every year a series of articles from a wide range of LGBT+ publications gives their opinions on who is going to do well and who is going to tank in the next season of RuPaul’s Drag Race, and every year they are proved categorically WRONG. Take last year – Kelly Mantle was tipped to top Drag Race and beat ’em all to the crown, for her experience and knowledge of the business, but was thrown spectacularly from the bus at the first challenge. Statistically speaking, the queen who comes on having been voted ‘Fan Favourite’, lasts approximately three episodes or less, but in the last season Darienne Lake managed to make it to the final four before being ejected. We just don’t know who or what is going to happen next, but there are some calculated guesses we can make.

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After a quick stalk on Twitter, it became obvious that Miss Fame is close to Mike Ruiz, standard guest judge and photographer on RuPaul’s Drag Race, so a guess would be that if she is still around when he shows up she should do fairly well in that week’s challenge. Or she’ll tank after the pressure gets too much. Either way it should be entertaining.

Kandy Ho is this season’s Puerto Rican queen, but the problem is that only one queen from Puerto Rico has broken the top three – Alexis Matteo. Statistically, Kandy Ho has the odds against her.

Tempest DuJour is already topping pre-season opinion polls and it’s not hard to see why with the stats heavily built in her favour. Simply by being the oldest queen in the line-up, like Raja and Chad Michaels, her odds of winning increase dramatically, as a third of all the queens who have won have been one of the eldest of their season. We would count Bianca Del Rio amongst these maturer queens, too, but a) she was beaten out by Darienne, Vivacious, and Kelly; and, b) we are afraid of her.

Max represents the ‘kooky’ crowd, which seems to rise and fall in and out of fashion. Tammie Brown and Milk didn’t do so hot, but Sharon Needles and Jinkx Monsoon won their seasons. Things could therefore go either way with Max, but she looks interesting to say the least.

There are a number of observations and comparisons we could make above and beyond this but that would serve no purpose other than to compare queens, which will do us no good. We are getting to that stage now where we need to see the queens going for it or we won’t be able to judge, although many people already are (find a RuPaul’s Drag Race fan’s Twitter account, I dare you). Statistics don’t lie in political elections, but in popularity/talent shows they can be misleading. Otherwise we would have already crowned one of these bitches.

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Although it should be pointed out that somewhere RuPaul is sat reading all these predictions and laughing evilly to herself that only she knows the true outcome of the show. Evil demented queen that she is (why did she not play Maleficent?)!

About Jake Basford

Essex-boy living in Cardiff, Jake is a writer, PR/Media officer, and Social Media consultant. Obsessed with video games, American culture and Buffy. Can usually be found at his laptop working.